美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)激進(jìn)加息加劇了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。美國《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》10月8日?qǐng)?bào)道，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的加息政策在全球掀起新一輪“加息潮”。出于遏制通脹、穩(wěn)定本幣匯率等多重考慮，世界多國央行紛紛宣布加息。對(duì)此，世界銀行警告稱，全球范圍的“加息潮”將把全球經(jīng)濟(jì)推向衰退，尤其是發(fā)展中國家將面臨一連串的金融危機(jī)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和持久傷害。以下為報(bào)道摘編：

[Photo/Xinhua]

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The Federal Reserve has embarked on an aggressive campaign to raise interest rates as it tries to tame the most rapid inflation in decades, an effort the central bank sees as necessary to restore price stability in the United States.為控制近幾十年來最嚴(yán)峻的通脹危機(jī)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)開始采取激進(jìn)加息政策，將其視為穩(wěn)定美國物價(jià)的必要措施。

But what the Fed does at home reverberates across the globe, and its actions are raising the risks of a global recession while causing economic and financial pain in many developing countries.但其所作所為在全球范圍內(nèi)引發(fā)震蕩，加劇了全球衰退風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，同時(shí)給許多發(fā)展中國家經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融造成沖擊。

Other central banks in advanced economies, from Australia to the eurozone, are also lifting rates rapidly to fight their inflation. And as the Fed’s higher interest rates attract money to the United States — pumping up the value of the dollar — emerging-market economies are being forced to raise their own borrowing costs to try to stabilize their currencies to the extent possible.從澳大利亞到歐元區(qū)，其他發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的央行也在迅速加息對(duì)抗通脹。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)通過加息加速海外資本回流、提振美元價(jià)值，使得新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體不得不提高借貸成本，以盡可能穩(wěn)定其貨幣。

Many economists and several international bodies have warned that there’s a pronounced danger or overdoing it, including a United Nations agency that warned the damage could be particularly acute in poorer nations. Developing economies had already been dealing with a cost-of-living crisis because of soaring food and fuel prices, and now their American imports are growing steadily more expensive as the dollar marches higher.許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和國際機(jī)構(gòu)警告稱，當(dāng)前的政策明顯存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，且過于激進(jìn)，例如聯(lián)合國某機(jī)構(gòu)警告稱，發(fā)展中國家受到的沖擊尤其嚴(yán)重。由于食品和能源價(jià)格飆升，發(fā)展中國家已經(jīng)在應(yīng)對(duì)生活成本危機(jī)，而現(xiàn)在隨著美元走高，從美國進(jìn)口的商品價(jià)格持續(xù)上漲。

The Fed’s moves have spurred market volatility and worries about financial stability, as higher rates elevate the value of the US dollar, making it harder for emerging-market borrowers to pay back their dollar-denominated debt.美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的加息政策引發(fā)了市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)及對(duì)金融穩(wěn)定的擔(dān)憂，因?yàn)榧酉⑻嵘嗣涝獌r(jià)值，使新興市場(chǎng)借貸人更難償還其以美元計(jì)價(jià)的債務(wù)。

It is a recipe for globe-spanning turmoil and even recession. Despite that, the Fed is poised to continue raising interest rates. 這可能導(dǎo)致全球經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩甚至衰退。盡管如此，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)仍準(zhǔn)備繼續(xù)加息。

The World Bank warned last month that simultaneous interest-rate increases around the world could trigger a global recession next year, causing financial crises in developing economies. It urged central banks in advanced economies to be mindful of the cross-border “spillover effects.”世界銀行9月警告稱，世界各國同時(shí)加息可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致2023年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退、發(fā)展中國家金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)。該機(jī)構(gòu)敦促發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體央行警惕跨境“溢出效應(yīng)”。

“To achieve low inflation rates, currency stability and faster growth, policymakers could shift their focus from reducing consumption to boosting production,” David Malpass, the World Bank president, said.世界銀行行長戴維·馬爾帕斯表示：“為了實(shí)現(xiàn)低通脹率、貨幣穩(wěn)定和更快的增長，政策制定者可以將重點(diǎn)從減少消費(fèi)轉(zhuǎn)向促進(jìn)生產(chǎn)。”

This week, the UN Conference on Trade and Development said the moves by the Fed and other central banks risked causing a global downturn. “Interest rate hikes by advanced economies are hitting the most vulnerable hardest,” the agency’s Trade and Development Report said.本周召開的聯(lián)合國貿(mào)易和發(fā)展會(huì)議表示，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和其他央行的舉措可能導(dǎo)致全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。會(huì)議發(fā)布的《2022年貿(mào)易與發(fā)展報(bào)告》稱：“發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體加息對(duì)最脆弱的國家沖擊最大?！?/p>

So far, major central banks have shown little appetite for stopping their inflation-busting campaigns. The Fed, which has made five rate increases this year, has signaled that it plans to raise borrowing costs even higher. 截至目前，各大央行幾乎沒有停止加息的打算。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)今年已經(jīng)加息五次，并表示計(jì)劃繼續(xù)加息。

Inflation is high across much of the world: 88 percent of low-income countries, 91 percent of lower-middle-income countries and 93 percent of upper-middle-income countries have seen inflation above 5 percent in recent months, according to the World Bank. Food costs in particular have driven millions further into extreme poverty, exacerbating hunger and malnutrition. As the dollar surge makes a range of imports pricier for emerging markets, that situation could worsen, even as the possibility of financial upheaval increases.當(dāng)前世界大部分地區(qū)的通脹率居高不下：據(jù)世界銀行統(tǒng)計(jì)，近幾個(gè)月來，88%的低收入國家、91%的中低收入國家和93%的中高收入國家的通脹率超過5%。特別是糧食成本提高，使數(shù)百萬人進(jìn)一步陷入赤貧，饑餓和營養(yǎng)不良問題惡化。美元飆升使新興市場(chǎng)的一系列進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品價(jià)格更高，這種情況可能繼續(xù)惡化，甚至增加爆發(fā)金融危機(jī)的可能性。

“Low-income developing countries in particular face serious risks from food insecurity and debt distress,” Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director-general of the World Trade Organization, said during a news conference this week.世界貿(mào)易組織總干事恩戈齊·奧孔喬-伊韋阿拉在本周的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上表示：“低收入發(fā)展中國家尤其面臨嚴(yán)重的糧食危機(jī)和債務(wù)危機(jī)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?！?/p>

In Africa, officials have been urging the I.M.F. and Group of 20 nations to provide more emergency assistance and debt relief amid inflation and rising interest rates.在非洲，官員們敦促國際貨幣基金組織和二十國集團(tuán)在通貨膨脹和利率上升的情況下提供更多的緊急援助和債務(wù)減免。

To be sure, central bankers in big developed economies like the United States are aware that they are barreling over other economies with their policies. 可以肯定的是，美國等主要發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的央行已經(jīng)意識(shí)到，他們的政策正在使其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體陷入被動(dòng)。

來源：《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》編輯：董靜

來源：中國日?qǐng)?bào)網(wǎng)

關(guān)鍵詞： 發(fā)展中國家 世界銀行 金融危機(jī)